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Morning Summary: Some NBP Policymakers Worried About Inflation Risks

POLAND
  • Covid daily new cases continue to drop with the 7D SMA falling from 6,300 to 4,300 in the 7 days.
  • Poland's Supreme Court maintained the stance that claims of banks and customers are independent and are not automatically subject to mutual compensations, the court announced after a sitting devoted to FX loan inquiry submitted by Poland's Financial Ombusdman. (PAP- BBG). Banks and mortgage holders are awaiting a sitting on May 11 at which all the judges of the Supreme Court Civil Chamber will answer six questions which are expected to decide whether banks agree to sign up to a plan for settlements with clients (Reuters).
  • In the NBP minutes from April 7 meeting, some policymakers argued that the NBP should raise interest rate in the second half of this year if CPI inflation continues to rise in the coming month.
  • Governor Glapinksi mentioned in a video conference on Friday that he was not surprised by the jump in CPI inflation in April and sees core and headline inflation gradually slowing down in the second half of this year. The NBP will also first its QE program before starting to raise rates, which are very likely to remain steady until mid-2022.
  • This morning, policymaker Grażyna Ancyparowicz said that she does not see demand-driven inflation yet in Poland and also confirmed Glapinski statement that NBP would have to end QE first before starting to raise its policy rates. However, some NBP policymakers are currently worried about the inflation risks (which could increase disagreements over rate hikes in the coming months).
  • Next data to watch is the Final CPI print coming out on May 14.
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