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RENEWABLES: Most of German Gas Capacity Out Of The Money In 2025: ICIS

RENEWABLES
CEEMEAEurozoneEnergy BulletsGermanyBulletPower BulletsCommodities

Only very few high-efficiency gas-fired power plants in Germany will be profitable for next year’s hedging, with only a 59%-efficient gas plant expected to be in the money during peak-load hours in 2025 according to ICIS (see chart). 

  • MNI calculations showed German 2025 gas clean spark spreads for a 59%-efficient gas plant have been trading at -4€/MWh to -1€/MWh during base load in the past week.
  • Closer in, front-quarter gas margins remain negative for all efficiencies, ICIS said.
  • MNI calculations showed German front-quarter clean spark spreads for a 59% efficient gas plant are currently trading at around -27€/MWh during base-load hours.
  • However, bullish EUA prices could support some coal-to-gas switching.
  • EUA prices are forecast at an average of €76.88/ton CO2e in 2025 according to a Reuters survey last year and at an average of €71/ton CO2e according to a BNEF forecast last year. ING is seeing 2025 EUA prices averaging €74/ton CO2e. 
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Only very few high-efficiency gas-fired power plants in Germany will be profitable for next year’s hedging, with only a 59%-efficient gas plant expected to be in the money during peak-load hours in 2025 according to ICIS (see chart). 

  • MNI calculations showed German 2025 gas clean spark spreads for a 59%-efficient gas plant have been trading at -4€/MWh to -1€/MWh during base load in the past week.
  • Closer in, front-quarter gas margins remain negative for all efficiencies, ICIS said.
  • MNI calculations showed German front-quarter clean spark spreads for a 59% efficient gas plant are currently trading at around -27€/MWh during base-load hours.
  • However, bullish EUA prices could support some coal-to-gas switching.
  • EUA prices are forecast at an average of €76.88/ton CO2e in 2025 according to a Reuters survey last year and at an average of €71/ton CO2e according to a BNEF forecast last year. ING is seeing 2025 EUA prices averaging €74/ton CO2e. 
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