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Moving lower

STIR FUTURES
  • STIR futures continue to grind lower, particularly in the UK and Europe. There are still no real headline drivers but the theme of higher terminal rates from the ECB and BOE and less cuts from the Fed continues.
  • The Mar-24 SONIA futures contract is now 15 ticks lower on the day. This means that markets are now pricing in around 84bp of future hikes from under 50bp less than two and a half weeks ago.
  • Euribor Reds have seen the biggest moves (10 ticks lower on the day) with the terminal rate increasing around 138bp higher than now by December. Again 2 and a half weeks ago we were looking at a terminal rate around 100bp higher than now by September before the curve inverted.
  • Moves are more limited in SOFR futures, down up to 2.5 ticks on the day. Markets see rates peak around 83bp higher by September with a cut by year end not even 50% priced now.
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