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MPC's Kochalski Sees Potential For Longer Pause In Rates, EU May Unfreeze Some Suspended Funds

POLAND
  • MPC's Cezary Kochalski told ISB News that Polish interest rates might remain unchanged through end-2024 but stressed that "this does not mean that I am announcing that this will happen". The official said "only a few weeks ago" he thought that one more rate cut could be on the table, but an analysis of recent data brought him to the conclusion that Poland will not experience a recession this year. He added that the MPC's reaction function has not changed, while reaching the inflation target over the medium term remains a priority. Note that Kochalski presides over MPC meetings when Governor Adam Glapinski has to leave the chamber.
  • Bloomberg ran a source report suggesting that Poland could access some frozen funds by the end of this year, which is in line with earlier suggestions of leading PM candidate Donald Tusk. The report noted that Poland will be allowed to tap a tranche of around EUR550mn from the RePowerEU programme in the coming weeks.
  • Acting government spokesman Piotr Muller suggested that the Law and Justice (PiS) party will likely unveil its proposed Cabinet line-up around November 25-27. This will set the stage for a confidence vote, which Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki is widely expected to lose.
  • Wprost reported that former Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski may return as chief diplomat. The newspaper flagged a conviction within the Civic Coalition that a "killer" is needed to ensure that the government's plays a leading role in foreign policy amid President Andrzej Duda's growing assertiveness.
  • Separately, RMF FM reported that former ombudsman Adam Bodnar will be named Justice Minister in the incoming pro-EU coalition government, replacing the controversial Zbigniew Ziobro.
  • Statistics Poland will release final CPI readings for October at 09:00GMT/10:00CET. The flash showed headline inflation easing to +6.5% Y/Y. The detailed report will provide an insight into the structure of the data.
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