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MS Above Consensus For Payrolls But With A Variety Of Downside Risks

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Morgan Stanley forecast NFP growth of 195k (sa) in July, slowing from the 206k as it “reflects slower public sector employment”.
  • “We expect private payrolls reaccelerated from 136k in June to 155k in July, still some modest slowing from their 174k per month year-to-date average gain.”
  • They see a variety of “important downside risks”:
  • i) “Hurricane Beryl interrupted activity but we expect it slowed hours more than payrolls.” That could see a temporary upward bias to average hourly earnings (estimated +0.4%).
  • ii) “Seasonal factors for July have shifted since before the pandemic; we think the shifts are appropriate but if they are not, there's downside risk.”
  • iii) “We have allowed for some drag from public sector education payrolls, but it's possible that the drag is larger (or smaller).”
  • They see the unemployment probably moving sideways at 4.1%.
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