MNI BRIEF: BOI Sees "Modest" Q2 EZ Growth Driven By Services

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, July 12

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CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

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MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

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Quicktake on June Employment: MS

US DATA
Morgan Stanley economists estimate payrolls for June will rise by +620k next week Friday vs. +559k for May (+600k private payrolls vs. +492k prior), citing increased recruitment efforts and compensation by employers to "draw people back into employment."
  • We expect labor force participation increased from 61.61% to 61.66% which, together with our forecast for payrolls, lowered the unemployment rate from 5.8% to 5.5%.
  • Elevated job openings and quits point towards strong demand for workers relative to supply, which we expect supported the bargaining power of current and prospective workers, resulting in a 0.3%M rise in average hourly earnings.
  • This would raise the year-over-year rate from 2.0% to 3.6% off of a low base in June 2020. We expect the average workweek ticked up 0.1 hours/week to 35.0 hours/week.
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