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Muted Start, Fed Headlines Week

US TSYS

TYZ3 deals at 106-11, -0-02, in line with levels seen late in Friday's NY session in a muted start to Mondays dealing.

  • On Friday cash tsys finished 4bps richer to 3bps cheaper across the major benchmarks.
  • The short end outperformed on Friday after geopolitical concerns added support. The Israeli military said they were expanding ground forces inside Gaza.
  • There was brief volatile trade after the latest round of US data, Personal Income was lower than estimates and Personal Spending was a touch here. PCE Deflators were broadly in line with expectations. The UofMIch Survey saw 1 Year Inflation Expectations tick higher however the 5 Year was in line with estimates.
  • FOMC dated OIS remain stable, there is no changes expected at this week's meeting. A terminal rate of 5.40% is seen in January with ~60bps of cuts by September 24.
  • The aforementioned FOMC monetary policy decision, which is due on Wednesday, headlines the weeks docket. Due today we have Dallas Fed Mfg Activity.

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