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NAB Business Survey Shows Resilience But Weaker Outlook

AUSTRALIA DATA

NAB business confidence for October fell to -2.3 from +0.5, the lowest since May but consistent with the series oscillating around zero for most of the year. Business conditions rose to 12.8 from 11.6. While conditions are off their 2022 peak, they remain solid and above the series average signalling that the economy remains resilient after significant monetary tightening.

  • The components of the conditions measure were generally stronger with profitability up 2.6 points and trading almost 2. Employment fell 0.9 points but September was revised up and the series shows that labour demand remains above average. Resilient conditions were driven by the mining, construction and transport/utilities sectors.
  • Forward orders fell 2 points to zero, which is below average but slightly higher than the Q2/Q3 2023 average, signalling a more challenging outlook. Retail orders were negative.
  • Exports were soft reflecting weak global trade and disappointing growth in China. Exporters’ sales fell to -3.1 from +4.2.
  • See NAB business survey here.
Australia NAB business conditions vs orders

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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