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NATGAS: EU Could Require 7.2bcm from LNG to Replace Ukraine Transit Flow: Rystad

NATGAS

The EU could require about 7.2bcm of gas to be sourced from the LNG market through terminals in Poland, Germany, Lithuania, and Italy to replace gas transiting Ukraine, according to Rystad Energy.

  • The current transit deal between Russia and Ukraine set to expire at year end but supply disruptions may occur sooner than initially expected.
  • Halting Russian gas pipeline flows via Ukraine would significantly impact the most dependent nations of Slovakia, Austria, and Moldova, importing about 3.2bcm, 5.7bcm, and 2bcm, respectively, in 2023.
  • Ukraine is discussing the transit of natural gas from Azerbaijan to the EU.
  • Moldova supply could reroute through reverse flows of the Trans-Balkan pipeline or from the Southern Gas Corridor in Azerbaijan, and from Turkish and Greek LNG terminals.
  • Austria would pivot to imports from Germany via the Oberkappel entry point but may not be sufficient to close the 8.53bcm import gap. Austria could require imports up to 2.5bcm from Italy via the Arnoldstein-Tarvisio crossing point.
  • Italy may need to source 3.75bcm for Slovakia and Austria from the Ravenna FSRU and pipeline supplies through Tunisia.
  • Hungary may rely on increased gas flow through the TurkStream pipeline, with the Horgos entry point operating at maximum capacity of 9bcm/y.

 

 

Source: Rystad Energy

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