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NATGAS: European Gas Storage Forecast at 34% at End March: BNEF

NATGAS
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Northwest Europe, Italy and Austria are forecast to end March with gas storage in line with the five year average at 26bcm or 34% full, according to a BNEF base case. The scenario assumes 10 year normal weather and no Russian gas transit via Ukraine. 

  • The fall from the previous projection of 40% is after 4bcm of withdrawals in the first three weeks of November, amid cold temperatures, cloud, low wind and weak LNG imports.
  • More LNG is required to refill storage next summer which is forecast at 86% at the end of September.
  • A repeat of the coldest winter from the last 10 year would take stocks down to 22% full while a mild winter would leave stores up at 47% full.
  • LNG competition between Asia and Europe has intensified for Q1 but a continuation of current volumes through Ukraine could see storage up to 38% full.
  • High and volatile prices and a weak economic environment will raise residential demand destruction from 11% to 12% and take industrial demand to 23% below the 2016-2020 average.

 

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Northwest Europe, Italy and Austria are forecast to end March with gas storage in line with the five year average at 26bcm or 34% full, according to a BNEF base case. The scenario assumes 10 year normal weather and no Russian gas transit via Ukraine. 

  • The fall from the previous projection of 40% is after 4bcm of withdrawals in the first three weeks of November, amid cold temperatures, cloud, low wind and weak LNG imports.
  • More LNG is required to refill storage next summer which is forecast at 86% at the end of September.
  • A repeat of the coldest winter from the last 10 year would take stocks down to 22% full while a mild winter would leave stores up at 47% full.
  • LNG competition between Asia and Europe has intensified for Q1 but a continuation of current volumes through Ukraine could see storage up to 38% full.
  • High and volatile prices and a weak economic environment will raise residential demand destruction from 11% to 12% and take industrial demand to 23% below the 2016-2020 average.

 

Keep reading...Show less