NATGAS: TTF Holds Between €38.5/MWh and €40.4/MWh Assessing Supply Risks

TTF front month is on track to remain net unchanged on the week having held between about €38.5/MWh and €40.4/MWh as the market assess the supply risks from Ukraine’s ongoing incursion into Kursk.

• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are again nominated at the normal level at 42.4mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are unchanged today nominated at 331.3mcm/d with capacity reductions of 18mcm/d today and over the weekend according to Gassco.
• The weather forecast for NW Europe remains relatively unchanged with temperatures dropping to near normal over the coming weekend and into next week and looking likely to hold at of just above normal into the second week of the outlook.
• European gas stores are up to 88.47% full on Aug 14 according to GIE compared to the five year average of 80.4% as below normal injections continue.
• European LNG sendout edged slightly higher to 222mcm/d on Aug 14 according to Bloomberg compared to an average of 203mcm/d so far in August.
• Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is still low at 43.0cm/d.
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was back down to 227k on Aug 15.
  • TTF SEP 24 up 0.6% at 39.85€/MWh
  • TTF WIN 24 up 0.6% at 43.25€/MWh
  • TTF SUM 25 up 0.7% at 41.66€/MWh