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National Rally Retains Polling Lead Despite Left-Wing Alliance

FRANCE
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The National Rally (RN) party of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella retains a polling lead ahead of French legislative elections on June 30 despite the formation of the Nouveau Front Populaire [New Popular Front] a new left-wing alliance designed to present a unified left-wing resistance to the RN.

  • A new survey from IFOP for the Journal du Dimanche, carried out June 13 to 14, found that, National Rally "is in pole position" (33% voting intentions) ahead of the NFP (28%) which gained 1 point from a June 10-11 survey.
  • IFOP notes that Macron's Renaissance party, "appears to be in difficulty (18% of voting intentions) and seems to suffer from a sanction vote as in the European elections."
  • The BBC notes that, "a poll on Friday evening for Le Point-Cluster 17 suggested the new left-wing alliance was not far behind Mr Bardella's party. It indicated RN could win 195-245 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, with the New Popular Front on 190-235. The Macron centrist alliance would be reduced to up to 100 seats."
  • IFOP notes that it expects high turnout on June 30: "...we measure high participation (63%) compared to that of the 1st round of the 2022 legislative elections (47.51%)."

Figure 1: French Legislative Elections Voting Intention

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The National Rally (RN) party of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella retains a polling lead ahead of French legislative elections on June 30 despite the formation of the Nouveau Front Populaire [New Popular Front] a new left-wing alliance designed to present a unified left-wing resistance to the RN.

  • A new survey from IFOP for the Journal du Dimanche, carried out June 13 to 14, found that, National Rally "is in pole position" (33% voting intentions) ahead of the NFP (28%) which gained 1 point from a June 10-11 survey.
  • IFOP notes that Macron's Renaissance party, "appears to be in difficulty (18% of voting intentions) and seems to suffer from a sanction vote as in the European elections."
  • The BBC notes that, "a poll on Friday evening for Le Point-Cluster 17 suggested the new left-wing alliance was not far behind Mr Bardella's party. It indicated RN could win 195-245 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, with the New Popular Front on 190-235. The Macron centrist alliance would be reduced to up to 100 seats."
  • IFOP notes that it expects high turnout on June 30: "...we measure high participation (63%) compared to that of the 1st round of the 2022 legislative elections (47.51%)."

Figure 1: French Legislative Elections Voting Intention

Keep reading...Show less