Natural Gas End of Day Summary: TTF Edges Up

Front month TTF is edging higher today, moderating previous losses after falling to the lowest since mid-July earlier this week. Pressure continues to come from ample supplies, above normal storages, mild weather, and muted demand.

• TTF MAR 24 up 0.2% at 24.91€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 0.3% at 25.6€/MWh
• The European weather forecast remains above normal for the coming week but the current forecast suggests a slight cooling trend towards normal at the end of the month.
• Net European gas storage withdrawals remain below normal to maintain overall stores up at the previous five-year range highs at 66.22% full on Feb 13 according to GIE data.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are relatively unchanged at 343.7mcm/d.
• The EU sees no need to extend the agreement to transport Russian natural gas to Europe via Ukraine that is planned to expire end-2024.
• Russia’s gas production volumes hit a low point in 2023, but are likely to see an uptick in 2024, according to Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler, cited by Bloomberg.
• South Korean LNG demand is forecast to be 3% lower on the year at 17.7mn tons this summer: BNEF.
• An extended US LNG project approval ban would have an impact on the fast-growing global market according to Steve Hill, who heads Shell's LNG, gas and power division.
• Europe will need to attract 5% more LNG than during summer 2023 to reach the same level of storage heading into the next winter heating season according Morgan Stanley.
• Shell’s Forecast That Global Demand for LNG will surge by over 50% by 2040 has some key underlying assumptions not supported by current trends, according to Reuters.