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NatWest: Below Consensus U/E Rate

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

Consensus For Payrolls, Below Consensus U/E Rate To Pre-Covid Levels

  • NatWest look for payrolls growth of 400k, a slightly slower pace from the Q1 average of 562k but not too much different than March’s 431k.
  • They see government payrolls up 40k, leaving private of 360k compared to the Q1 average of 552k.
  • The average workweek should have rebounded to 34.7 hours after falling a tick in March, pushed aggregate hours worked by 0.6% M/M after no change in March.
  • They see above consensus AHE growth of 0.5% M/M, pushing the year-ago rate up to 5.6% Y/Y vs the pre-Covid trend of circa 3% Y/Y.
  • The drop in jobless claims in the first half of April suggests the u/e rate could fall two tenths to a below consensus 3.4%, below the pre-Covid level of 3.5% in Feb’20. They are tempted to forecast an even larger decline in the rate but see the pool of active job-seekers increasing.
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