DALY SEES 'NO URGENCY TO ADJUST THE POLICY RATE'

MNI BRIEF: Fed’s Collins Sees Rate Cuts Later Than Had Thought

MNI BRIEF: China March M2 Slows More Than Expected

MNI BRIEF: China Tightens Stock Market Supervision

MNI BRIEF: China Mar Exports Jump On Demand; Imports Improve

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.0967 Fri; -4.87% Y/Y

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 617; OIL RIGS 506; GAS RIGS 109

March Home Sales Jumped At End Of Month

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

MNI BRIEF: Lawmakers Signal Tough Hearing For BOC's Macklem

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

NatWest: Below Consensus U/E Rate

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

Consensus For Payrolls, Below Consensus U/E Rate To Pre-Covid Levels

  • NatWest look for payrolls growth of 400k, a slightly slower pace from the Q1 average of 562k but not too much different than March’s 431k.
  • They see government payrolls up 40k, leaving private of 360k compared to the Q1 average of 552k.
  • The average workweek should have rebounded to 34.7 hours after falling a tick in March, pushed aggregate hours worked by 0.6% M/M after no change in March.
  • They see above consensus AHE growth of 0.5% M/M, pushing the year-ago rate up to 5.6% Y/Y vs the pre-Covid trend of circa 3% Y/Y.
  • The drop in jobless claims in the first half of April suggests the u/e rate could fall two tenths to a below consensus 3.4%, below the pre-Covid level of 3.5% in Feb’20. They are tempted to forecast an even larger decline in the rate but see the pool of active job-seekers increasing.
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.