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- Today (1pm London time), NBH is expected to slow down the pace of its policy tightening cycle and hike by 15bps on September 21 (sell side is split between 15bps and 30bps).
- Even though inflationary pressures remain firm, economic uncertainty keeps increasing.
- Hence, aggressive tightening cycle could eventually lead to a significant deceleration in the economic activity.
- Stronger USD, contraction in Chinese liquidity and Evergrande 'collapse' pose a threat to the global economic activity.