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NBH Opens The Door For Bigger Hikes

HUNGARY
  • Hungary's central bank opened the door to larger interest-rate increases days after a decision to keep to a slower pace of monetary tightening amid accelerating price-growth prompted investors to sell the forint (BBG).
  • We saw that selling pressure on HUF has remained elevated following the NBH decision to hike by 15bps this week.
  • A 30bps hike could have eased the volatility on the long end of the interest rate curve and benefit the forint in the short term.
  • HUF is one of the weakest FX performers among the EM world in recent weeks, down 5.4% against the USD and 4% against the Euro since the start of September.
  • USDHUF tick lower this morning after finding resistance at 314.10 yesterday; next level to watch on the topside stands at 315. On the downside, first support stands at 310, followed by 308.50.
  • Hungary 10Y yield has been retracing slightly lower this week after finding a local high at 3.89% on Monday; key resistance to watch on the topside stands at 4%. On the downside, first support to watch stands at 3.70%.
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