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NBH To Maintain Hawkish Stance

HUNGARY

Executive Summary:

  • NBH to hike 'core' policy rate by 50bps today and 1W depo rate by 30bps on Thursday
  • The trajectory of the 1W deposit rate will strongly depend on the dynamics of HUF
  • CEE currencies have been very sensitive to the geopolitical uncertainty in Russia


Link to full preview:


NBH CB Prev - Feb 25.pdf


The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) is likely to maintain the pace on its policy tightening and raise its ‘core’ policy rate by 50bps to 3.4%. The central bank decided to accelerate the tightening process on its ‘core’ rate last month by increasing the pace of hikes to 50bps (from 30bps previously). In order to continue its “combat” against inflation, the NBH has also been acting via the 1W facility, with the 1W depo rate currently standing at 4.3%. Deputy Governor Barnabas Virag said during his latest press conference (January) that the central bank plans to shift to monthly moves in the 1W depo rate, meaning they’re likely to hike by a further 30bps in February and March.


Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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