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NBP Keeps Status Quo, Glapiniski to Speak on June 11

POLAND
  • As expected, the NBP decided to keep its benchmark rate steady at 0.1% yesterday. In its statement of June 9 MP meeting, the NBP once again mentioned that inflation is expected to remain above NBP 3.5% upper tolerance band in the coming months, but then decline in 2022. The NBP said that it will continue its QE operation and there is still a lot of uncertainty on the scale and tempo of the economic recovery.
  • As mentioned in previous meetings, the pace of the recovery will be partly linked to the PLN; too weak would be inflationary and therefore would push the central bank to raise rates, but too strong would tighten financial conditions and therefore could weigh on the economic recovery.
  • As we mentioned it in our NBP preview, market participants could start to take profit on the PLN after the strong momentum we have seen in April and May if NBP keeps hinting that it will not act until the end of the current MPC term.
  • Governor Glapinski will speak at a press conference on Friday (June 11) at 2pm (London time); we could see some price action depending on the tone of the speech.
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