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NBP Press Conference Takes Focus, Coalition Agreement Expected Tomorrow

POLAND
  • Governor Adam Glapinski will hold a press conference at 14:00GMT/15:00CET to explain yesterday's decision by the Monetary Policy Council to pause the rate-cutting cycle. Most sell-side analysts called for a 25bp cut, which is why the on-hold decision sent the zloty rallying, with EUR/PLN crossing below the 4.45 mark. There is substantial uncertainty around the central bank's reaction function in the wake of the recent parliamentary elections and today's presser may provide some clues on what to expect going forward.
  • NBP Board member (note that this is a separate body from the Monetary Policy Council) and former head of the presidential chancellery Pawel Mucha clashed with Governor Glapinski, who publicly accused him of "unacceptable conduct". Mucha responded by releasing a lengthy statement in which he suggested that Glapinski refused to comply with his duty to share the minutes of MPC meetings with the Board and should bear legal responsibility.
  • The three-party pro-EU coalition is expected to unveil a formal agreement on Friday, while Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki is going through the motions of an attempt to form government. Onet reports that the joint policy agenda will have over 20 provisions, which include a commitment to hold the outgoing administration to account. Following the announcement of the coalition pact, each party's governing body will convene to ratify it in the following days, which should be a formality.
  • Sources told Onet that during the recent consultations, President Andrzej Duda repeatedly proposed the Prime Minister position to PSL's Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz. At the same time, Morawiecki told Interia that he could see himself serving as a minister in Kosiniak--Kamysz's government. PSL's leader rejected the offer, reaffirming that his party endorses Civic Coalition's Donald Tusk as the only candidate for Prime Minister.
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