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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
POLAND
Executive Summary:
- The NBP is likely to hike the policy rate by 75bps on April 6th following the ‘positive’ surprise in inflation in March.
- Sell-side firms are broadly expecting the NBP to hike its policy rate by 50bps to 4% (with risks being skewed to the upside).
- A lower rate hike could ‘disappoint’ market and therefore lead to some PLN weakness.
Link to full preview:
MNI Poland CB Preview April 8.pdf
Inflationary pressure continues to remain elevated in the CEE region, with CPI coming out above expectations in March at 10.9% YoY (vs. 9.8% exp.), up from 8.5% the previous month, mainly driven by the surge in energy (gasoline) and food prices due to the Ukraine war. Inflation forecasts have constantly been revised to the upside in recent months, with analysts expecting inflation to continue running at a double-digit pace in the coming months. Supply chain disruptions and the war shock are among the main drivers that will keep an upward price pressure on energy and food despite the VAT cut.
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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