FED'S BARKIN: LOOKING FOR MORE EVIDENCE OF INFLATION'S DECLINE

BARKIN: FED SHOULD ACT DELIBERATELY, KEEP CLOSE EYE ON ECONOMY

MNI BRIEF: China Equip't Renewal Policy Includes Foreign Firms

MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, July 17

MNI China Press Digest July 17:  Investment, LPR, H2 Priority

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY268 Bln Via OMO Wed; Rates Unchanged

MNI: JAPAN JUNE EXPORTS +5.4% Y/Y; MAY +13.5%

US Treasury Auction Calendar

Broad-based Softening In June Underlying Inflation Metrics

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Near Late Lows Ahead Friday's PCE, ECI Data

US TSYS
Front month Treasury futures gradually extended session lows after after the Treasury $35B 7Y note auction (91282CGZ8) tailed again: 3.563% high yield vs. 3.552% WI; 2.41x bid-to-cover vs. 2.39x last month.
  • The initial impetus for Thursday's jump in yields (10s top 3.5357%) was the uptick in inflation as core PCE Q1 advance of 4.94% annualized for the core PCE deflator (cons 4.7%) implies a March reading bouncing back to 0.50% M/M (current consensus 0.3), from 0.30% in Feb after 0.52% in Jan.
  • Jun'23 10Y futures dipped below 20-day EMA of 115-00.5 to 114-21 session low as focus turned to 114-18.5 50-day EMA. Key support has been defined at 113-30+, the Apr 19 low. A break of this support would reinstate the recent bearish theme.
  • Heavy short end selling saw curves bear flattening (2s10s hit -57.777 low). As a result of re-acceleration of March inflation, implied rate hikes in the near term have firmed, May at 22.6 while Jun cumulative climbs to 28.7 at 5.116.
  • Tighter policy projections for year end are well off Tuesday highs: November cumulative currently -8.8bp (-31.1bp Tue) at 4.741, Dec'23 cumulative -29.5bp (-52.1bp Tue) at 4.534. Meanwhile, Jan'24 cumulative sits at -51.9bp vs. a full three 25bp cuts late Tuesday.
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.