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Nearing Positive Territory For BAH3/Z3 Spread

CANADA
  • BAX implied yields are off earlier highs but still see a 12bp increase for the Dec’23 and 17bps for the Jun’24, having been dragged higher by US rates post CPI (SOFR equivalent +16bp and +20bp).
  • It leaves the Dec’23 pushing to yet new cycle highs whilst the Mar’24 of 4.62% would poke above late October levels for the highest close of the cycle if trading stopped now.
  • Peak yields continue to be seen in the Jun’23 contract but it’s still notable that the BAH3/Z3 spread of -0.065 is closing in on positive territory for the first time since May [right hand chart, low of -0.91 Jan 18th] and further out 1H24 yields are now ~90bps higher than after the BoC’s conditional pause on Jan 25.

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