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Free AccessNearing Positive Territory For BAH3/Z3 Spread
- BAX implied yields are off earlier highs but still see a 12bp increase for the Dec’23 and 17bps for the Jun’24, having been dragged higher by US rates post CPI (SOFR equivalent +16bp and +20bp).
- It leaves the Dec’23 pushing to yet new cycle highs whilst the Mar’24 of 4.62% would poke above late October levels for the highest close of the cycle if trading stopped now.
- Peak yields continue to be seen in the Jun’23 contract but it’s still notable that the BAH3/Z3 spread of -0.065 is closing in on positive territory for the first time since May [right hand chart, low of -0.91 Jan 18th] and further out 1H24 yields are now ~90bps higher than after the BoC’s conditional pause on Jan 25.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.