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PERU: New Cars Sales At 12-Year High Ahead Of BCRP Meeting

PERU
BulletPeruEM BulletEmerging Market News
  • Ahead of this evening’s BCRP meeting, latest vehicle sales data suggest that the domestic economy is continuing to perform well. In January, new car sales rose by 18.4% y/y to their highest monthly level since January 2013, according to Scotiabank. They say that this figure can be attributed to improving real income levels on the back of rising formal employment and benign inflation pressures.
    • Following the interest rate decision later, January labour market and December economic activity figures are due on Saturday. The unemployment rate fell to a 10-year low of 5.5% in December and analysts see economic growth holding at 3.9% y/y in the final month of the year, which would take 2024 full-year GDP growth to 3.2%.
    • While inflation data keep the door open to a further cut, domestic activity figures therefore do not point to any urgency for further easing at this juncture.
    • USDPEN is broadly unchanged ahead of the rate decision, with the pair continuing to trade within the recent tight 3.70-3.72 range. BBVA sees USDPEN as likely to rebound into the mid-3.70s in the upcoming sessions. They remain biased to be short USDPEN above 3.75, particularly in the run-up to the annual tax season in March.
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  • Ahead of this evening’s BCRP meeting, latest vehicle sales data suggest that the domestic economy is continuing to perform well. In January, new car sales rose by 18.4% y/y to their highest monthly level since January 2013, according to Scotiabank. They say that this figure can be attributed to improving real income levels on the back of rising formal employment and benign inflation pressures.
    • Following the interest rate decision later, January labour market and December economic activity figures are due on Saturday. The unemployment rate fell to a 10-year low of 5.5% in December and analysts see economic growth holding at 3.9% y/y in the final month of the year, which would take 2024 full-year GDP growth to 3.2%.
    • While inflation data keep the door open to a further cut, domestic activity figures therefore do not point to any urgency for further easing at this juncture.
    • USDPEN is broadly unchanged ahead of the rate decision, with the pair continuing to trade within the recent tight 3.70-3.72 range. BBVA sees USDPEN as likely to rebound into the mid-3.70s in the upcoming sessions. They remain biased to be short USDPEN above 3.75, particularly in the run-up to the annual tax season in March.