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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GERMANY
With political parties in Germany increasingly turning their attentions towards the upcoming European Parliament election in June, the entrance of the left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) into opinion polling data tables over the past few weeks has shaken up the prevailing political trend. Support for the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) has declined from around 23-24% in mid-Jan to 18-20% as of early Feb. This has coincided with BSW being included on opinion polls, with the party now garnering around 5-7% support .
- BSW was formed by former members of the far-left Die Linke and is led by Sara Wagenknecht, who has served in the Bundestag since 2009.
- The BSW advocates a left-wing economic position but on other issues (halting immigration, scrapping green policies, stopping funding to Ukraine) the BSW's policies line up with the AfD. The two parties also both garner much of their support from the former east Germany.
- A weaker performance than initially expected by the AfD in the EP elections could provide some relief to the parties of gov't (SPD, Greens, FDP). However, it remains that the section of support leaving the AfD will not have reverted to the centre ground, but remained at the political extreme, just on the far-left rather than far-right.
- Over the longer-term, the rise of another extreme party that those in the centre ground will refuse to work with raises the prospect of lengthy coalition-building and difficuly policy making after the next election, due autumn 2025 at the latest.
Chart 1. Federal Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: INSA, FGW, Wahlkreisprognose, Forsa, GMS, Allensbach, YouGov, Verian, Infratest dimap, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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