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NFIB Price Plans Settling At Increasingly Unfavorable Level

  • NFIB small business optimism was fractionally stronger than expected as it only dipped to 90.7 (cons 90.5) from 90.8.
  • “The October data shows that small businesses are still recovering, and owners are not optimistic about better business conditions. Small business owners are not growing their inventories as labor and energy costs are not falling, making it a gloomy outlook for the remainder of the year.”
  • “Owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months was unchanged from September at a net negative 43% (seasonally adjusted).”
  • We also note a latest increase in the net share planning to increase prices over the next three months, which rose 3pts to 33%.
  • After falling sharply in 1H22, it has held a range of 21-34%, but the trend through 2023 has been the wrong way, bottoming at 21% in April and that 33% now the highest since Nov’22. It can be seen as a sign that further disinflation on a Y/Y basis should still be in the pipeline but to a level that is increasingly unlikely consistent with the 2% inflation target.

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