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Varied Opinions For Dec Jobs Gains Next Week

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
Data picks up as 2022 gets underway next week, Change in Nonfarm Payrolls for December next week Friday, wide range of sell-side opinions, mean est +400k so far vs. +210k in Nov.
  • TD Securities expects a gain of +500k, positing the "late-December COVID surge likely came too late to prevent a pickup in US payrolls after the gain in November (210k) appeared to be held down by an overly aggressive seasonal factor."
  • On the flipside:
  • Morgan Stanley estimates Dec jobs to gain 260k with "little change in public employment, so that private payrolls increased 265k. This, in combination with a slight uptick in labor force participation from 61.8% to 61.9%, is expected to leave the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2%."
  • MS also "expect average hourly earnings growth was also unchanged at 0.3%M in December, lowering the year-over-year rate from 4.8% to 4.1%. We expect the average workweek will remain unchanged at 34.8."

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