NI Police Shooting Could See Heat Taken Out Of Protocol Rhetoric

The shooting of a senior police office in Northern Ireland could see some of the more heated rhetoric taken out of discussions around the Northern Ireland protocol in the coming days. There is no signal of any link between the shooting and the ongoing talks between the UK and EU on the protocol.

• However, rare incidents such as these in Northern Ireland can result in a heightened state of political and social unease between unionist and nationalist communities. As such, politicians in NI, GB, and the EU are likely to seek to restrain their rhetoric around the protocol to avoid inflaming any tensions.
• Numerous talks between senior UK and EU officials have taken place in recent days, with UK PM Rishi Sunak speaking to NI politicians and business leaders over the past week. This has raised expectations that a deal on the protocol could be reached soon. This would still require approval from the House of Commons, where there is the risk of a rebellion by backbench Conservative MPs opposed to any revised protocol opposed by unionist communities.
• On the evening of 22 February, a senior off-duty police officer Detective Chief Inspector John Caldwell was shot multiple times in the town of Omagh, Northern Ireland and is in a critical but stable condition. The Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) have stated that the "primary focus" of their investigations are dissident republicans and the New IRA.