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VIEW: BNZ: 50:50 50 As CPI Soars


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Latest polling from YouGov on the gov'ts recent hike to National Insurance contributions - slated to pay for adult social care and the NHS - shows the continued realignment of UK politics away from historic political ideologies and towards schisms based on age and asset holdings.

  • Historically, voters for the centre-left Labour Party would usually be seen as more supportive of a rise in taxation to support public services. Centre-right Conservative Party supporters on the other hand would historically lean towards lower taxes and cuts to gov't spending.
  • The reaction to the tax hike, criticised by opponents as unfair on younger workers, renters, and the less well-off in favour of wealthy, asset-rich pensioners, acts as another sign of a realignment in UK politics.
  • The poll shows 57% of Conservative voters in favour of the hike, compared to 25% of Labour voters, Only 36% of Conservative voters polled opposed the hike, compared to 68% of Labour-voting respondents. In previous years, the reverse of these results would be expected with Labour voters more supportive of the hike than Conservatives.
  • Labour now draw their support overwhelmingly from younger voters (under the age of 50), who no longer support tax increases across the board but instead advocate those focused on those with large asset holdings (meaning homeowners) or on business. The Conservatives, on the other hand, draw much of their support from older voters who are more supportive of tax hikes than previous Tory voters, as long as these do not impact their asset holdings, and the revenue raised goes towards areas such as health or social care.
Chart 1. Opinion Poll on NIC Tax Hike, %

Source: YouGov, 13-14 Sep