NIDA Poll Clouds Political Outlook, Plurality Of Thais Don't Have Preferred PM Candidate

A new poll by the National Institute of Development Administration showed that the main opposition Pheu Thai Party's nominee Paetongtarn Shinawatra remains the most preferred candidate for Prime Minister, albeit her support rate declined from the previous survey and most respondents said they did not have a favourite candidate.

• The share of people who refused to endorse any candidate rose to 24% from 19% recorded in June. Paetongtarn was the second most popular choice as 22%, down from her 25% result in the previous survey. Leader of the progressive Move Forward Party Pita Limjaroenrat came third at 11%, down from June's 13%. Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha was next at 10%, down from 12% three months ago.
• The results underscore the crisis of political leadership haunting Thailand's domestic politics, with the Prime Minister suspended by the top court until a legal dispute over his term limit is resolved. The lack of a public favourite to replace him increases uncertainty around the succession of power and future policy trajectory.
• The Pheu Thai Party holds the lead among Thailand's political parties and could garner 34% of the vote. Combined support for the bloc of three main opposition parties eroded by 12pp since June. Still, there was no notable surge in voting intentions for ruling coalition parties and almost a quarter of respondents expressed neutrality, another sign of electoral demobilisation and general disappointment with domestic political scene.
• The ruling Palang Pracharat Party scored an unimpressive 6%, while its leader and acting Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan failed to make any impact. Prawit didn't make it into the list of top 13 candidates whose support ratings were reported in detail.
• Thailand must hold a general election no later than in May 2023, unless the Prime Minister calls a snap poll. The Constitutional Court is currently reviewing amendments to Thailand's electoral law, which increases the unpredictability of local politics.