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US
With the New Hampshire Republican primary complete, focus turns to the next contests of the Republican presidential nominating process. For a roundup of the New Hampshire primary see today's edition of the MNI US Daily Brief.
- In 14 days, Nevada will hold its presidential primaries; with former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley on the ballot.
- Two days later, the GOP will hold a caucus with former President Donald Trump on the ballot. Due to a conflict between a 2021 state law and the state’s Republican party, only the GOP-run caucus will award delegates, meaning Trump is guaranteed to sweep the entire slate of 26 delegates.
- The Nevada contest deprives Haley of momentum in the leadup to an exceptionally challenging South Carolina primary on February 24. Trump is expected to win comfortably and pick-up the entire slate of delegates again, as the state assigns delegates on a winner-takes-all basis.
- To compound Haley’s issues, the South Carolina Republican conference has overwhelmingly lined-up behind Trump and polling in South Carolina gives Trump a commanding 52% - 21% lead. Should Haley persist until South Carolina, she risks a political damaging loss in her home state which could impact her future political aspirations.
- It therefore likely that Haley will suspend her campaign ahead of the South Carolina primary. Should she remain in the race, the results will be largely immaterial as Trump is broadly seen as nominee in all but name.
Figure 1: South Carolina Republican Primary Polling Average
Source: RealClearPolitics
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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