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Stronger In a Range


Weaker In A Range


Ending The Week On A Soft Note


Bearish Risk Growing


Stronger, But Still Vulnerable


SP500 PE Ratio vs. CPI Inflation

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In the first opinion poll of its kind since the announcement that California will likely hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom (D) in the autumn, there is no clear sign as to who the likely Republican frontrunner would be to seek to replace the incumbent.

  • In late April, the state of California announced that the threshold of petition signatures required to trigger a recall against Newsom had been reached. The recall is not guaranteed as Democrats have 30 days from April 26 to try to convince individuals to remove their signature from the recall, although this is an unlikely prospect.
  • The SurveyUSA News poll shows a large number of potential Republican challengers with no clear frontrunner: John Cox (R): 9%, Richard Grenell (R): 5%, Kaitlyn Jenner (R): 5%, Major Williams (R): 3%, Mike Cernovich (R): 3%, John Moorlach (R): 3%, Daniel Mercuri (R) : 3%, Kevin Faulconer (R): 3%, Doug Ose (R): 2%, Wouldn't Support Any: 38%, Undecided: 26%, SurveyUSA / April 30-May 2, 2021 / n = 642 / Online
  • In the strongly Democratic state, the likelihood remains that Newsom will be able to hold onto the governor's mansion in a recall, but should popular momentum begin to accelerate behind a Republican candidate (former Olympian and TV celebrity Kaitlyn Jenner's entry into the race could spark this) it could result in a closer race than expected.