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No Meaningful Net Movement In FOMC Pricing On ADP

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Very modest dovish moves in FOMC-dated OIS in the wake of the ADP data, with the dataset’s poor NFP predicting record and proximity to the ISM services survey likely limiting feed through.

  • ~45bp of cuts are priced through year end, with ~19.5bp of easing showing for the Sep FOMC and ~29bp of cuts priced through the November gathering.
  • To recap, the dataset provided a softer-than-expected headline employment change and modest negative revision to the prior month’s reading.
  • Elsewhere, the job stayers wage growth metric held steady in Y/Y terms (+5.0%), while the job changers wage growth metric eased to a still elevated +7.8% Y/Y (prev. 9.3%).
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Very modest dovish moves in FOMC-dated OIS in the wake of the ADP data, with the dataset’s poor NFP predicting record and proximity to the ISM services survey likely limiting feed through.

  • ~45bp of cuts are priced through year end, with ~19.5bp of easing showing for the Sep FOMC and ~29bp of cuts priced through the November gathering.
  • To recap, the dataset provided a softer-than-expected headline employment change and modest negative revision to the prior month’s reading.
  • Elsewhere, the job stayers wage growth metric held steady in Y/Y terms (+5.0%), while the job changers wage growth metric eased to a still elevated +7.8% Y/Y (prev. 9.3%).