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NOAA Predict Near-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2023 Season

ENERGY

US NOAA forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center predict near-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic in 2023 season between 1 June and 30 November. The forecast shows a 40% chance or near normal, 30% chance of above normal and 30 % chance of below normal.

  • NOAA forecast 12-17 names storms in the 2023 hurricane season of which 5-9 could become hurricanes and including 1-4 major hurricanes. NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.
  • The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than recent years with a high potential for El Nino to develop this summer, which can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity.
  • El Nino could be offset by favourable conditions such as above-normal west African monsoon and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea.
  • Even near-normal numbers could tighten the US gasoline market and disrupt oil production and trade flows according to S&P Global. An already tight US gasoline market could be vulnerable with approximately half of US refining capacity on the Texas and Louisiana coasts.
Energy BulletsCommoditiesUS
Energy BulletsCommoditiesUS

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