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Nomura See EZ CPI Confirming View That ECB Hawkishly Hold in September

ECB VIEW
  • Nomura write that this morning's EZ CPI estimate data justifies the ECB skipping a September hike in a hawkish manner, adding that they think that in October, data will have justified a de facto end to the ECB's hiking cycle, leaving the deposit rate at a terminal level of 3.75%.
  • This is an extension of their post-July ECB decision view, at which they saw no change in September after Lagarde emphasised data dependence and opened the door to a Fed-style approach of skipping certain meetings.

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