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Non OPEC+ Output Growth Offsets Demand Growth in H2 2023: Energy Intelligence

OIL

Supply growth from non-OPEC+ producers such as the US, Brazil, Norway, and Canada as well as Guyana and Uganda could reduce the tightening balance still widely expected in the market. The supply increase will be sufficient to meet forecasted demand growth worldwide in 2023-2025 according to Energy Intelligence.

  • Energy Intelligence forecasts demand to grow by 1.4mbpd in H2 2023 and non OPEC+ producers to produce an additional 1.5mbpd during that period.
  • Non OPEC+ output will grow by 1mbpd in 2024 compared to demand growth of 1.2mbpd and increase by over 2mbpd in 2025 at twice the estimate for demand growth.
  • New capacity additions in non OPEC+ are currently projected to decline only starting in 2026.
  • An extension to the 1mbpd cuts from Saudi Arabia beyond Jul and delays to non OPEC+ projects in the next couple of years provide risks for a tighter market.

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