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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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August nonfarm payroll survey change median is +725k on a range of 400k to 1mn, with average 707k and standard deviation 137k (suggesting a 570k to 844k figure would be roughly within expectations). Current whisper +677k.
- A decent beat (850k+) would probably be more surprising than a miss. We've already seen some downside in yields after disappointing ADP / ISM manuf employment this week, and the "whisper" number has declined by more than 100k to 718k since those releases.
- On an upside surprise we'd expect an outsized reaction in the belly of the curve as it's been the most sensitive area to Fed funds liftoff. And perception of liftoff timing has depended closely on a) taper timeline and b) the dot plot, the upcoming September edition of which could well be influenced in a hawkish direction by a strong NFP beat.
- CFTC COT data suggests that net positioning in 5Y futures has moved to close to its largest net longs in at least 12 months, with 2Y and 10Y Ultra longs being trimmed: a setup for a payrolls 'beat' to trigger bear flattening.
- A modest 'miss' (~550-600k) would merely be in line with most of August's disappointing data, and wouldn't change the taper timeline much, perhaps extending the start by another meeting or so (so announcement in December for January start, as opposed to November for December start). Especially after Powell dialed back expectations of a September taper announcement last week.
Bloomberg "Whisper" Survey For Aug Nonfarm Payroll ChgSource: BBG
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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