March 07, 2025 07:54 GMT
POWER: Nordic 2Q25 Falls 9% On Week Amid Declines in TTF, Stronger Hydro Balance
POWER
The Nordic front quarter is trading around 9% lower on the week to be at parity with its settlement on 4 March amid price falls in TTF and German power. Upward revisions of the hydro balance in Norway and Sweden also weigh. However, downward revision of temperatures in the region could limit losses.
- Nordic Base Power 2Q25 down 0.7% at 19.25 EUR/MWh
- Germany Base Power APR 25 down 2.9% at 70.77 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.4% at 67.07 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas APR 25 down 4.1% at 36.69 EUR/MWh
- Norway’s hydrological balance was revised higher 7-21 March by as much as around 350GWh and is expected to end at +9.58TWh on 21 March from +9.23TWh in the previous forecast for the same period.
- Sweden’s balance is also expected higher on the day and is now anticipated at +7.31TWh on 21 March from +7.21TWh previously estimated for the same day.
- However, average temperatures in the Nordics have been revised lower over 10-12 March by as much as 0.4C on the day. Temperatures are expected to be on a general downward trend until 12 March – when it will flip below the seasonal average.
- Temperatures will remain below until 18 March before flipping back above over 19-21 March.
- Rainfall in the region is expected to remain below the seasonal average until 21 March – which could limit flows into reservoirs.
- Closer in, Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 82% capacity on Friday morning, up from 78% on Thursday. 10 of 11 units are still online, according to Bloomberg.
- Norwegian wind is anticipated at 2.05GW, or 39% load factor on 8 March, up from 2.20GW anticipated on 7 March – however, prices could still fall from the previous session due to lower demand.
- Wind will then drop to 1.06GW on 10 March – likely having a limited impact on gains from higher demand from the weekend.
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