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Why MNI
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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MNI FOMC Hawk-Dove Spectrum
NORWAY: Slightly Softer Than Projection Growth, But Unlikely To Sway NB Yet
Norwegian Q2 mainland GDP was 0.1% Q/Q, below analyst consensus, the Norges Bank’s June MPR projection and the Q2 Regional Network Survey indication of 0.2%. The Q1 reading was also revised a tenth lower to 0.1% Q/Q. At first glance, this doesn’t represent enough of a “pronounced slowdown” in the Norwegian economy to sway the Norges Bank from its current hawkish guidance.
- We think the Q3 Regional Network Survey (due in September) will be of more consequence in this regard, as it provides a forward-looking view into Q3 and Q4 growth.
- Household consumption rose 1.5% Q/Q, but this was driven by an increase in car purchases (which are volatile). Excluding transport means, consumption rose 0.7% Q/Q.
- The oil and gas extraction industry continued to buoy Norwegian growth overall though, with GDP rising 1.4% Q/Q (vs a one tenth upwardly revised 0.3% prior).
- Total exports were thus supported by crude oil and natural gas sales, rising 5.6% Q/Q (vs -1.4% prior). Import growth meanwhile rebounded 3.1% Q/Q (vs -0.4% prior).
- Gross fixed capital investment rose 5.1% Q/Q, with extraction and transport via pipeline investment rising 10.0% Q/Q. We expect the offshore sector to continue to outperform in 2024, particularly after the Q3 oil investment survey signalled another increase in investment expectations.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.