NORWAY
MNI (London)
- Norway Q3 GDP surprised to the upside, advancing by +0.8% q/q, double that of consensus expectations. The service industry and wholesale trade boosted economic activity throughout August and September, as reopening effects increased services expenditure.
- Excluding Norwegian consumption abroad, consumption data was markedly weaker. Household consumption fell 0.5% q/q. This was driven by a broad-based 2.1% q/q fall in goods consumed, which outweighed the +1.4% q/q boost in services spending.
- The increase in global oil and gas prices has driven the Norwegian trade balance to a record high. Head of National Accounts, Pål Sletten highlighted that "measured in current prices, total GDP, including oil and gas extraction, was 67 per cent higher in the third quarter than at the beginning of 2021".
- With inflation jumping to a fresh 1987 high at +7.5% y/y in October and GDP growth remaining robust, Norges Bank will look to tighten policy further. Market focus will not only be on the headline policy rate change (another 25bp expected), but also on the projection for the peak policy rate in Q1/Q2 next year.
Norway GDP & Household Consumption (SA, rolling 3m average):
Source: Statistics Norway
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