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NW European Diesel Stocks to Rise in Coming Weeks on Low Demand: WoodMac

DIESEL

Northwest European diesel-type fuels stockpiles are expected to rise in the coming weeks, driven by weak demand and relatively strong supply, according to Wood Mackenzie.

  • “The European diesel/gasoil demand outlook has softened considerably amid continued weak industrial activity across the euro zone,” said Emma Howsham, analyst at WoodMac said.
  • Even the return of colder weather failed to significantly lift demand, she added.
  • In recent months, France, Germany and Spain have all seen diesel-type fuels demand dropping below 2022 levels.
  • Woodmac forecasts demand to decline by 120kbpd, or almost 4%, on the year in NW Europe in Q1 2024
  • While European refiners increased refinery runs after autumn maintenance, imports also picked up, Howsham said.
  • At the same time, NW Europe’s intake of sour crude has fallen 30% since the EU’s ban on Russian oil in December 2022 weighing on the output of diesel-type fuel, which is expected to stay in the first quarter of next year, Woodmac said.
  • The region’s gasoil/diesel market is expected to continue to lengthen into 2024 as global supply firms, supported by the ramp-up of refining capacity additions, especially in the Middle East, Howsham said.

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