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NY Fed Inflation Expectations Firmly At Odds With U.Mich Increase

  • The NY Fed consumer survey of inflation expectations in October showed no sign of the ramp up seen in the U.Mich survey for October and which continued into its preliminary November release last week.
  • 1Y expectations dropped to 3.57% from 3.67%, just above the 3.55% of July otherwise the lowest since Apr’21.
  • 3Y expectations held at 3.0% for the second month, although that's relatively high by recent month standards, prior to September last seen in May and then Dec’22.
  • 5Y expectations meanwhile dropped a tenth to 2.7% for their lowest since May. This compares notably with the 5-10Y U.Mich measure, which in October pushed back to 3.0% before increasing to 3.2% to break above its stable 2.9-3.1% range since 2021 for a highest since 2011.
  • The readings appear to increase the possibility that the U.Mich survey is revised lower in the finalized November print.

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