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NY Fed Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)

US

According to the NY Fed, the latest UIG "full data set" measure for March is currently estimated at 4.3%, a 0.5 percentage point decrease from the current estimate of the previous month.

  • The "prices-only" measure for March is currently estimated at 3.6%, a 0.3 percentage point decrease from the current estimate of the previous month.
  • The twelve-month change in the March CPI was +5.0%, a 1.0 percentage point decrease from the previous month.
  • For March 2023, trend CPI inflation is estimated to be in the 3.6% to 4.3% range, a lower and slightly narrower range than February, with a 0.3 percentage point decrease on its lower bound and a 0.5 percentage point decrease on its upper bound.

Shaded area indicates period of recession as designated by National Bureau Economic ResearchNY Federal Reserve/MNI

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