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NZD: NZD/USD Edges Higher, Milk Prices Rise

NZD
USNew ZealandNorth AmericaBulletAPACForeign Exchange BulletsMarkets
  • NZD/USD rose 0.34% to 0.5913, with the pair bouncing right off the yearly lows. The move higher follows broad USD weakness while the a move higher in equities also helped the currency.
  • Global Dairy Trade prices rose, with whole milk powder averaging $3,826 per ton, up from $3,713 previously. The weighted average price for all milk products reached $4,089 per ton, reflecting a 1.9% increase in the GDT price index
  • Taking a look at technical levels,  support holds at 0.5836 (Nov 18th lows), with a break here opening a move to the 2023 lows of 0.5772 (Oct 26th 2023). Initial resistance is 0.5900 (Round number) a move back above here would see a test of 0.5957 (20-day EMA).
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing firmed on Monday with 54bps of cuts priced in for November. Looking out to 2025 the market has firmed 2-5bps with 93bps of cuts priced for Feb and 1134bps by April, while further out the curve the market expects 139bps of cuts by Oct 2025.
  • The US-NZ 2yr swap fell 7bp on Friday to -43bps, and we are now testing the multi-year lows of 43.5bps
  • Today's expiries are 0.5675 ($350m), 0.5850 ($200m), 0.5950 ($300m), 0.6040 ($406.57m) November 20th cut, there is a large expiry for Nov 25, strike of 0.6000 ($978m).
  • The local calendar is empty today.
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  • NZD/USD rose 0.34% to 0.5913, with the pair bouncing right off the yearly lows. The move higher follows broad USD weakness while the a move higher in equities also helped the currency.
  • Global Dairy Trade prices rose, with whole milk powder averaging $3,826 per ton, up from $3,713 previously. The weighted average price for all milk products reached $4,089 per ton, reflecting a 1.9% increase in the GDT price index
  • Taking a look at technical levels,  support holds at 0.5836 (Nov 18th lows), with a break here opening a move to the 2023 lows of 0.5772 (Oct 26th 2023). Initial resistance is 0.5900 (Round number) a move back above here would see a test of 0.5957 (20-day EMA).
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing firmed on Monday with 54bps of cuts priced in for November. Looking out to 2025 the market has firmed 2-5bps with 93bps of cuts priced for Feb and 1134bps by April, while further out the curve the market expects 139bps of cuts by Oct 2025.
  • The US-NZ 2yr swap fell 7bp on Friday to -43bps, and we are now testing the multi-year lows of 43.5bps
  • Today's expiries are 0.5675 ($350m), 0.5850 ($200m), 0.5950 ($300m), 0.6040 ($406.57m) November 20th cut, there is a large expiry for Nov 25, strike of 0.6000 ($978m).
  • The local calendar is empty today.