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NZD Outperforms Post Rate Call Change/Higher US Equities

NZD

NZD had a strong finish to last week, trending higher to test its recent upper range of 0.6150, as we get underway in Asia for the new week, the pair opens just below at 0.6140/45. It was the best performer of G10 currencies last week, after ANZ made headlines with their rate change view that New Zealand would see two 25bps hikes this year. Also note Fonterra was out earlier this morning lifting their Milk price forecast to $7.80/kg

  • NZD/USD trended higher post the Asian session Friday, on the back of ANZ rate hike view, testing the 0.6150 a level. The better tone to US equity sentiment on Friday likely aided NZD as well. The currency outperformed traditional safe havens - JPY and CHF.
  • NZD/USD has remained rangebound in 0.6050/0.6150 since mid January, a break and hold above the 0.6150 could signal a move higher to the 0.6200 area. Currently, the 20 and 50-day EMAs are situated below spot at 0.6130/0.6140.
  • AUD/NZD broke below 1.060 during the European session on Friday hitting lows not seen since May 2023 of 1.0586. As trading gets underway in Asia for the new week, the pair has opened just above 1.060. Further weakness could signal a move to yearly lows of 1.0560.
  • Looking forward: Little in the way of data today, 2yr inflation Expectation out tomorrow, while house sales data out Wednesday.
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