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NZD/USD Back Above 0.6000, As The Dollar Slumps Post CPI Miss

NZD

NZD/USD has risen just over 2.25%, the second best performer in the G10 space behind SEK. The USD fell sharply post the weaker than expected CPI print. From 0.5865, the Kiwi rallied to over 0.6000 by late NY trade on Tuesday. We currently track near 0.6010, fresh highs back to mid October.

  • Tuesday's rally puts us above all key EMA's except for the 200-day (0.6065). The 100-day day, at 0.5984, has been a cap in recent months. We will need to stay above this level to confirm a more bullish outlook.
  • US yields slumped -20-22bps across the 2-7yr tenors, while the 10yr yield fell 19bps, back to 4.45%. Fed rate cut expectations rose post the CPI miss. May 2024 has a 50% chance of a rate cut now priced in.
  • Equity sentiment was strong, the SPX rising 1.91%. EU equity markets were also firm. Commodity indices rose, but gains were more modest (the aggregate Bloomberg index +0.36%).
  • Coming up on the data front is Oct card spending, as well as Sep migration data. There are no consensus reads for these prints, the prior was -0.1% m/m for card spending, 9980 for net migration.
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