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Resistance Remains Intact


Trend Needle Points North


Bearish Outlook


WTI Sees Lowest Close Since January


Key Support Remains Exposed

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KIWI: NZD/USD recovered from a new five-month low Monday as exp. for wide-spread
central bank action to help mitigate the impact of Covid-19 supported the pair,
initially dented by soft Chinese off'l PMI data & broader coronavirus worry. The
kiwi started the day as the worst G10 performer, but a softening USD took some
pressure off NZD/USD allowing it to enter positive territory. 
- Looking at mkt pricing, a 25bp reduction to the OCR at the next RBNZ meeting
is now fully baked in, with a slight (~28%) chance of a 50bp cut. Last Tuesday
markets saw a mere ~19% probability of a 25bp rate cut.
- NZD/USD treads water, last deals at $0.6264. A break above the 23.6%
retracement of the Dec 31 - Mar 2 sell-off/Feb 28 peak at $0.6316/19 would draw
topside attention to the Feb 27 high at $0.6335. Bearish focus remains on
Monday's multi-month low of $0.6180.
- Later today NZ Tsy will publish its monthly economic indicators. Elsewhere,
domestic focus turns to building permits (Wednesday) & vol. of all buildings
(Friday). GDT auction results are due in the London afternoon, on Tuesday. 

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