NZD/USD recovered from a new five-month low....>

KIWI: NZD/USD recovered from a new five-month low Monday as exp. for wide-spread

central bank action to help mitigate the impact of Covid-19 supported the pair,

initially dented by soft Chinese off'l PMI data & broader coronavirus worry. The

kiwi started the day as the worst G10 performer, but a softening USD took some

pressure off NZD/USD allowing it to enter positive territory. 

- Looking at mkt pricing, a 25bp reduction to the OCR at the next RBNZ meeting

is now fully baked in, with a slight (~28%) chance of a 50bp cut. Last Tuesday

markets saw a mere ~19% probability of a 25bp rate cut.

- NZD/USD treads water, last deals at $0.6264. A break above the 23.6%

retracement of the Dec 31 - Mar 2 sell-off/Feb 28 peak at $0.6316/19 would draw

topside attention to the Feb 27 high at $0.6335. Bearish focus remains on

Monday's multi-month low of $0.6180.

- Later today NZ Tsy will publish its monthly economic indicators. Elsewhere,

domestic focus turns to building permits (Wednesday) & vol. of all buildings

(Friday). GDT auction results are due in the London afternoon, on Tuesday.