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NZD: NZD/USD Edges Lower As Risk Assets Sell-Off, Inflation Beats Estimates

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  • NZD/USD closed Friday down 0.36% at 0.5742. The pair hit its highest level for the year on Thursday, and remains in an upward trend after trading up 3.30% from the lows from early Jan. There was a risk-off move occur late during the Friday session after recirculated report of a new Covid strain out of China with "pandemic potential".
  • Speculative sentiment toward the NZD has turned more bearish, with CFTC data showing net positions declining to -52.2K as of Feb. 21, down from -49.3K. This suggests traders are becoming more cautious, possibly due to concerns over New Zealand’s economic outlook or external pressures.
  • Key levels to watch include, resistance is 0.5784 (100-Day EMA), a break here would open a move to retest 0.5800. To the downside, a break back below the 50-Day EMA at 0.5705 would open a move to the Feb 12 lows of 0.5600.
  • New Zealand's retail sales ex-inflation rose 0.9% q/q in Q4, exceeding the 0.5% forecast and rebounding from a revised 0% in Q3. There has been no reaction from the NZD following this data.
  • RBNZ dated-OIS is fully pricing in a 25bps cut in April, while there is about a 70% chance of a further 25bps cut priced for May.
  • The NZ-US 2yr swap rose 8bps on Friday, hitting -58bps, the highest levels since Mid-Dec
  • The calendar is empty until ANZ Business Confidence on Thursday,
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  • NZD/USD closed Friday down 0.36% at 0.5742. The pair hit its highest level for the year on Thursday, and remains in an upward trend after trading up 3.30% from the lows from early Jan. There was a risk-off move occur late during the Friday session after recirculated report of a new Covid strain out of China with "pandemic potential".
  • Speculative sentiment toward the NZD has turned more bearish, with CFTC data showing net positions declining to -52.2K as of Feb. 21, down from -49.3K. This suggests traders are becoming more cautious, possibly due to concerns over New Zealand’s economic outlook or external pressures.
  • Key levels to watch include, resistance is 0.5784 (100-Day EMA), a break here would open a move to retest 0.5800. To the downside, a break back below the 50-Day EMA at 0.5705 would open a move to the Feb 12 lows of 0.5600.
  • New Zealand's retail sales ex-inflation rose 0.9% q/q in Q4, exceeding the 0.5% forecast and rebounding from a revised 0% in Q3. There has been no reaction from the NZD following this data.
  • RBNZ dated-OIS is fully pricing in a 25bps cut in April, while there is about a 70% chance of a further 25bps cut priced for May.
  • The NZ-US 2yr swap rose 8bps on Friday, hitting -58bps, the highest levels since Mid-Dec
  • The calendar is empty until ANZ Business Confidence on Thursday,