NZGBS: At Cheaps With Curve Flatter

NZGBs closed at session cheaps with yields 6-11bp higher and the 2/10 curve 5bp flatter. An e-mini-induced cheapening in U.S Tsys in Asia-Pac trade supported the move higher in NZGB yields. Cash 10-year benchmark slightly outperformed U.S. Tsys with the NZ/US yield differential narrowing 1bp to +57bp. The 10-year yield differential has traded in a 40-85bp range since mid-December.

• Swaps closed 3-11bp softer, implying a tighter long-end swap spread, with the 2s10s curve 8bp flatter.
• RBNZ dated OIS closed with pricing 1-10bp softer across meetings with November leading. Terminal rate expectations rose to 5.23% with 25bp of tightening priced for April.
• After a week-long hiatus, the local calendar sees the release tomorrow of ANZ Business Confidence (Mar) and Building Consents (Feb). The market will be focused on the pricing and cost components of the survey given that the February result continued to point to inflationary pressures. Building consents should confirm a trend softening due to a tightening in financial conditions. The data is likely to be cyclone impacted.
• With the global calendar relatively light until Friday when Euro Area CPI (Mar) and US PCE deflator (Feb) are released, the markets will be closely watching to see if global yields remain pressured by improving risk sentiment.