May 17, 2024 04:52 GMT
NZGBs Cheaper, Curve Bear-Flattened, RBNZ On Wednesday
BONDS
NZGBs are 1-3bps cheaper, curve has bear-flattened largely mirroring moves made by US Tsys. The past week have seen yields move 12-17bps lower, the long-end saw the most support with the 20 & 30yr 16bps richer, the moves were driven largely from US Tsys as the market priced two 25bps cuts in by year-end, looking ahead to next week focus locally will be on the RBNZ who meet on Wednesday
- US treasury futures have traded in tight ranges today, with volume slightly higher than normal although well down on Thursday volumes. Front-end futres are outperforming with the 2Y up (+ 00.75) at 101-25.125 while the 10Y contract is up (+ 01) at 109-16+. Earlier there was a large amount of Block SFRZ4 option buys for a total size of 52k.
- The NZGB curve is has bear-flattened today, yields are 1-3bps higher with the 2Y +3bps at 4.669% and the 10Y is +2.6bps at 4.586%.
- Swap rates are 1-2bps lower, curve steepened
- (BBG) ANZ Sees RBNZ Holding Rate Until May 2025 on Sticky Inflation - (see link)
- RBNZ dated OIS is 2-3bps weaker over the day and is now pricing a cumulative 47bps of easing into year-end
- Looking Ahead: RBNZ on Wednesday
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