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NZGBS: Closed At Bests, Add to Post-CPI Rally

BONDS

NZGBs have strengthened through the session to close at bests with the 2- and 10-year benchmark yields 9bp lower. Today’s move comes after yesterday’s 7-9bp richening sparked by a lower-than-expected print for Q1 CPI. The move to session highs has been assisted by a slight bid tone to global bonds in Asia-Pac trade. US Tsys sit 1-2bp lower in Asia-Pac trade. NZGBs have nonetheless outperformed their $-bloc peers with the NZ/US and NZ/AU 10-year yield differentials respectively 3bp and 4bp lower.

  • Swap rates are 11bp lower with implied swap spreads narrower.
  • RBNZ dated OIS closed 3-13bp softer across meetings with Apr-24 leading. 19bp of tightening priced for the May meeting versus 24bp before the. Easing expectations for Feb-24, off the expected terminal OCR of 5.52% (July), are currently 46bp.
  • RBNZ Deputy Governor Hawkesby's speech notes from today's address covered familiar ground stating that the extent of moderation in the domestic economy will determine the direction of future monetary policy.
  • The local calendar is light next week with ANZ Business and Consumer Confidence (Thu) as the highlights. In Australia, Q1 CPI is scheduled for Wednesday.
  • Until then, participants will eye US Tsys’ response to the US earnings season, Fedspeak and global Flash PMIs.
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